A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, unless you think the probability of obtaining both birds in the bush is greater than 50%.
--Kevin Burrill
(I know I don't really need to sign my name for comments on my own blog, but I just thought I'd put it here to remind you this is one of my originals, in case you type it up to hang in your cubicle at work.)
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3 comments:
Wikipedia suggests that most people are have a higher level of loss aversion than that. It'd need to be something like better than 66% chance of getting the two birds.
Jeremy,
Thanks for referencing wikipedia as your expert source on pyschological issues. Also, interestingly enough my recent survey backed your findings as 75% of my small sample size chose the certain 100K. But I still think my statement holds true if you're a gambler.
I wouldn't want you to think I was making anything up. The Internets are maybe making things up, but it's not me.
captcha: flumar = combination of flummox and fubar
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