Teacher Apreciation

Last week was teacher appreciation week. Although I didn't get much from my students my friend Matt did send me this thoughtful card:

Speculation

It is not a steadfast rule, but I have a general policy: I don’t answer the phone if it is a number I don’t recognize… unless I’m in the car. Then I really don’t have anything better to be doing, and I don’t use a Bluetooth, and breaking minor laws can often help avoid boredom.

One day I get a phone call in the car and an abridged version of the conversation went something like this:

“As an avid investor would you be interested in learning more about some great investment opportunities?”

“I don’t know.”

“How about a company that invests in oil?”

“Maybe.”

“What about a business that invests in rare stamps from the 1930’s?”

“Probably not.”

“How about a company that specializes in making environmentally friendly electrical decisions?”

“Maybe.”

(The conversation continued this way for several types of businesses. Trying to get through the list so I could figure out where this was going I started to get less particular.)

“What about a firm that sells additional appendages to robots living on other planets?”

“Sure.”

“Okay. Thanks for your time. I’ll give your information to all of those businesses so they can contact you about investing in their companies.”

“Wait. What? Don’t… Hold on… Uh… Um… Bye.”

Since that call I’ve had an increase in unrecognizable numbers contacting me. I’ve even answered a few times.

“Can I speak with Kevin Burrill?”

“This is him.”

“If I made a quality presentation would I be able to convince you to invest $80,000 into a highly profitable gasoline and oil company?”

“I teach math.”

Last Thursday morning I wasn’t in the car, but I did have supervision duty before my first class and about 10 minutes to kill so I answered again. This time he did a sales pitch letting me know that I needed to buy in his company because recently the CEO has been buying up shares, and “who knows the company better than its CEO?” I didn’t know the strength of that argument, but I did understand that 200 shares at four bucks a share was a lot less money than 25 grand or 80 grand. So I decided to take a gamble and agree to buy 200 shares.

Later I reflected on this purchase as I had somehow I managed to buy 200 shares in a company I literally knew nothing about. I didn’t know the name of the company, or even the industry. Who does that? All I knew was the CEO has recently been buying up the shares. I assumed I wasn’t the second largest owner.

Then the salesman called me back to let me know he needed the check within seven days of the order. However, all the information was mailed to my parents house, the address associated with this sales list. My parents mailed me the documents, but it wasn’t going to be in time. I’m been extremely busy at work. Finally, I wrote him and e-mail saying to just cancel my order, because I didn’t have time to take care of this, and basically I was talked into buying shares in a company I knew nothing about. He called me back upset and said, “Did I do something wrong? Your e-mail made it sound like I shoved stock down your throat.” It did feel like that a little, but he asked me to send a positive e-mail back so it would be on record, and to not e-mail him anymore. At Raymond’s request I did send back another e-mail, but I was still skeptical.

Also, he uses his full name. Raymond.

Finally, Friday night I went to Steph’s house and together we reviewed all of the documents. There were several shady things in the document. My birthday was off by one digit. My social security number was off by one digit. My address was my parents’ address. Some of my general information had been changed or never discussed. I had told him on the phone my net worth was basically nothing. Yet, the box that was checked for net worth said $100,000-$500,000. It said I was a frequent investor with at least ten years experience, and my preferred choice of investments was speculation. So basically the information ranged from accurate, to exaggerated, to flat out wrong.

Plus we looked up a picture of Raymond and Steph added, “He even looks like a weasel.”

So I texted Raymond early Saturday morning and he called back immediately from his office. I openly expressed all of my concerns, and let him know I was hesitant and new to this entire process. He continued to respond as a complete salesperson. He had an answer for everything. He was a good talker. He used techniques like consistently rounding off the numbers in his favor. I’m not saying he was a liar, but definitely a manipulator, and a salesman. I mean just last week he convinced me to buy 200 shares in a company I knew nothing about: this guy was good.

I took the aggregate of all this information. Documented typos. Manipulative tactics. Fabricated information. A broker that I didn’t trust on the phone, that asked me not to e-mail in the future, and looks (and acts) like a weasel.

So I did what any reasonable human would have done at that point. I let him talk me into 800 more shares and immediately sent him a check for five times the original amount.

Anyone have a bridge they want to sell me? I may be in the market.

Pic of the Week

This was the view as I was leaving Gio's house Saturday after watching the Giants game:

Thought of the Week

October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
--Mark Twain

High Stakes Poker

I still remember several details of this hand from watching it on TV a few years ago.

A few things to note:

When Barry Greenstein says that he has "about 190" when the hand started. He is referring to $190,000.
Watch how Farha's read is so good that he seriously considers folding the Kings.
Notice how Greenstein reacts after the result of this pot.




Incredible.

Five Tips to Winning at No Limit Hold 'em

A couple years ago a friend of mine told me he thought writing a blog was a stupid waste of time, because if someone was writing something worth reading they would be doing it for an actual publication.

No offense taken.

He added if I wrote a succinct piece about poker strategy, like five tips to playing winning poker, that he and other people would actually want to read it. Since I have also had a couple other requests to write more about poker, today I will honor his suggestion.

In recent years no-limit Texas Hold ‘em has significantly increased in popularity. When I first started playing poker in casinos it was often hard to find a no-limit game. Now it is often hard to find any other game in a casino or at a friend’s house. I’ve also found that more and more people are playing poker, both casually, and on a more serious level. So with all of that in mind I bring you:

Five Tips to Winning at No Limit Hold 'em

1. Consider the size of the pot

If you are involved in a hand you should have a rough idea of how much money is in the pot. It is important to consider this when deciding how much to bet, and also when deciding if your hand is worth a call. Usually, it is not wise to bet more than the amount in the pot. Often a bet of 1/2 the pot or 2/3 the pot will provide you the same result as going all-in (for example getting a player with a weak hand to fold or learning if your opponent is trying to trap you with a monster hand). Also, consider the size of your pot if you are drawing. Is the pot big enough to warrant a call? Sometimes an opponent will make such a small play that you will be getting good enough odds to call with a hand as weak as a gutshot. Other times the bet will be so large you should fold your nut flush draw.

2. Learn some basic odds

Respect the fact that poker is largely about math. You don’t need to be a math expert, but do need to be able to quickly make a few mathematical approximations. Here are a couple facts you can use for play on the flop:

A flush draw and an open-ended straight draw are both about 2 to 1 dogs to hit (meaning you will make your draw about 1/3 of the time).

If you multiply your outs by 4 that is the approximate percent of the time you will win the hand.

If you can make a few quick mathematical estimations it will help you make decisions about when to continue and when to fold.

3. Don’t try to be too tricky

I remember years ago after a hand I asked my friend Jeremy, “You have jacks?” After he showed me that my read was correct he concluded that because I was able to put him on the hand that he must have bet it properly. This was a profound realization. Often players are upset that an opponent was able to read them, but it may just mean that the hand was played properly. I’ve seen many beginning players make a bet and then are disappointed when they are not called. Usually, betting a good hand and picking up the pot is a good thing. If a player has a hand that could improve to beat your hand then you want to make him pay to stay in. Don’t overuse deception, and recognize picking up a pot with the best hand is usually the right play.

4. Pay attention to the play of your opponents

Hollywood leads us to believe that playing poker is about picking up on a player’s tell like if they are tapping their foot, or tilting their head to the left, or eating an Oreo in a certain way. However, the best way to get a read on your opponent is to remember what they have done in the past, particularly what they have done at each betting stage in that hand. If you have been at the table for 15 minutes or more you should have some idea of how often an opponent is involved, how aggressive they are, and you should factor in all this information when making important decisions.

5. Be selective, but not too selective

No limit is much different than limit poker. You can get big pay-offs even against only one opponent. Much of your profit in a session will be determined by a few big pots. I’m not advocating playing any two cards, but because of the possible gain you can get value out of playing hands like 55 or A4s. In a no-limit game AK and AQ are often going to win you small pots and occasionally lose you big pots. For example the flop comes A75 one player holds AK and the other 55. With that said playing more hands also means you will have to be able to get away from your hands with certain flops. For example if you play an 89s and the flop comes 953. This is a good flop for your hand, but depending on the action it may also be a good flop to lose a lot of money. With the 89s you’re really hoping for A89, or 67x.

In summary, winning poker is largely about memory and math. Pay attention to your opponents and always consider the numbers when making your decisions. Don’t let the result of one hand upset you. Winning or losing a pot isn’t as important as consistently making profitable plays. Good luck at the tables (unless I’m involved in the hand.)

Quotation Marks

This was taken in a gas station bathroom.



And please do not use quotation marks for no apparent reason.

Thought of the Week

A computer once beat me at chess, but it was no match for me at kick boxing.
--Emo Philips